Highlights:

• Warm temperatures, melting snow, and forecast rains will lead to high water levels and potential flooding.
• Ponding, standing water, and localized flooding could be expected around the watershed.
• Smaller watercourses will rise and some could spill their banks into adjacent low-lying areas.
• Thames River is likely to rise enough to flood the low-lying area adjacent to the river, from Delaware down to Thamesville. In Chatham, the sidewalk along the river downtown is expected to flood over.

Message:

A warm weather system will move into the region tomorrow (Thursday) bringing unseasonably warm temperatures over the weekend and into early next week. With the warm temperatures will come rain. Forecasts for tomorrow are predicting between 10 and 25 mm of rain for the region. Small amounts of additional rain are also forecast for Friday and Saturday. While most of the snow has already melted out of the lower Thames River watershed, there is still a significant snowpack in the upper watershed which is expected to melt away with the warm temperatures and rain, adding to flows in the region’s watercourses.

Based on the forecasts, smaller watercourses in the region are expected to rise, and some may spill their banks into adjacent low-lying areas. Many of these smaller watercourses and drainage ditches have been filled in with snow and ice, which can block flows causing localized flooding. Areas of ponding, standing water, and localized flooding could be seen around the watershed. Depending on the rainfall received, the LTVCA may need to operate the McGregor Creek Diversion Channel in Chatham.

The Thames River is also expected to rise due to the rain and melting snow. Based on the current snowpack and predicted rain, it is highly likely that the river will rise enough to flood the low-lying areas adjacent to the river, from Delaware down to Thamesville. In Chatham, water should be expected over the sidewalk along the river downtown. If higher rainfall amounts appear, the LTVCA may need to operate the 6th St. Dam and Pumping Station. Peak water levels are expected to arrive in the lower Thames River on Saturday and to work their way downstream over the next few days, arriving in the Chatham area early next week. Water levels on the river should be expected to remain elevated well into next week. An additional update will likely be required once the total amount of rainfall and snowmelt from the upper watershed is known.

While the Thames River had developed a significant ice cover this year, the river now appears to be ice free. A recent windshield survey of the river did not observe any ice on the river from Wardsville down to the mouth. At the mouth, at Lighthouse Cove, the river is ice free and has melted the ice out into Lake St. Clair. It appears that there is no longer a risk of ice jam related flooding this season.

People should take extra caution and avoid the river, ditches, and streams. The combination of slippery banks, and fast-moving cold water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. People should stay out of any flooded areas and not drive through flooded roadways. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from the water. It is not safe to take shelter along riverbanks or in low lying areas that are prone to flooding.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory as necessary.

This message will be in effect until March 10th.

Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])