Highlights:

• Warm temperatures over the last few days have caused the snowpack to begin melting.
• Forecasts calling for 3 to 10 mm of rain over the next 24 hours.
• Smaller watercourses have risen, their ice has been breaking up, and blockages have been seen.
• Areas of ponding, standing water, and localized flooding could be seen around the watershed.
• Ice on the Thames River should be considered unsafe at this time.
• However, full breakup of the ice on the Thames River is not expected at this time.

Message:

The region has seen a period of warm temperatures over the last few days, with daytime highs yesterday reaching 10 degrees Celsius in Ridgetown, 12 degrees in Windsor, and 7 degrees in London. Some places also saw trace amounts of precipitation. These warm temperatures have caused the snowpack around the region to begin melting. In some areas where there was less snow to begin with, most of the snow has already melted out. This afternoon, a weather system is expected to arrive in the region, with various forecasts predicting between 3 and 10 mm of rain for the Lower Thames watershed over the next 24 hours. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above freezing through the overnight tonight, not dropping back below freezing until Thursday overnight into Friday morning. These weather conditions will lead to further melting of the snowpack, and additional runoff to the region’s watercourses.

Smaller watercourses in the region have already responded to the snowmelt. Many of these watercourses were filled with snow and ice, which hasn’t allowed them to drain properly. In many areas, the ice has melted or broken up. Blockages have been seen in some areas. This has led to ponding, standing water and localized flooding in some areas. Some watercourses have already seen their water levels drop. However, the additional rain and melting expected over the next 24 hours could cause further rise in water levels and further ponding or localized flooding. The LTVCA may need to operate the McGregor Creek Diversion Channel and is prepared to do so if necessary. Any ice remaining on the region’s watercourses should be considered unsafe and should be avoided.

The Thames River is also responding to the warm temperatures and snowmelt. The river is rising and the ice on the river is rising with it. In many areas, the ice has separated from the banks. Where warm water has entered the river, there are areas where the ice has melted out. While full breakup of the river ice is not expected at this time, the ice may break up in some areas. The ice on the Thames River should be considered unsafe at this time. Flooding from the river is not expected at this time.
People should take extra caution and avoid the river, ditches, and streams. Any remaining ice on these watercourses should be considered unsafe. The combination of slippery banks, unstable ice conditions, and fast-moving cold water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory as necessary.

This message will be in effect until February 28th.

Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])