Highlights:

• Gale Warning has been issued for Lake Erie due to strong easterly winds in the forecast for this evening and overnight lasting into tomorrow morning.
• Risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding along all areas of the Lake Erie shoreline, including the interior of Rondeau Bay.

Message:

A Gale Warning has been issued by Environment Canada due to strong east winds predicted for this evening and overnight lasting into tomorrow morning. Winds are currently out of the northeast and are expected to switch more easterly and climb to 35 km/hr late this afternoon or early evening. Forecasts call for the winds to peak during the overnight period with sustained wind speeds between 40 and 60 km/hr and gusts between 60 and 90 km/hr (depending on the forecast). Forecasts call for the winds to switch to the southeast Sunday morning and southwest in the afternoon. Some forecasts are calling for winds on Sunday to drop in the morning while others are calling for winds to stay strong throughout the day. The Marine Forecast suggests wave heights on Lake Erie could reach 2 to 3 m in height overnight. Forecasts also suggest that there could be 10 to 20 mm of rain overnight into tomorrow morning.

Strong winds will be driving waves onto the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County throughout the evening and overnight period and into Sunday. There is quite a bit of variability in the forecasts and what areas may get impacted depends on what actually occurs. But there is the potential for impacts to all locations along the shoreline during this event. The high bluff areas along the Chatham-Kent and Elgin County shorelines will be exposed to wave action throughout this event and there is a risk of shoreline damage in these areas. More low-lying shoreline areas in Chatham-Kent around Rose Beach Line and Wheatley will also be exposed for almost the entire event and there is a risk of shoreline damage and flooding in these areas. Communities on the west of Rondeau Bay such as Shrewsbury and Erieau could also see flooding from the bay with the higher wind forecasts if the winds stay more east or northeast. A couple forecasts suggest there could also be impacts along Erie Shore Drive. Generally Erie Shore Drive would be sheltered from east winds but a couple forecasts suggest winds could be more southeast and a couple forecasts suggest that winds will still be strong enough to cause issues Sunday morning when winds switch to the south. The rain in the forecast could just add to the flooding in low-lying, poorly drained areas or along watercourses in shoreline areas. Residents should pay attention to local conditions and be prepared.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until December 2, 2019.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])