Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie.
• Moderate to strong winds in the forecast this evening into Sunday evening.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Great Lakes shorelines, including high bluff areas on Lake Erie.
• Flooding possible in Rondeau Bay communities of Shrewsbury and the bay side of Erieau this evening.
• Flooding possible in low lying, south facing, Lake Erie shoreline communities such as Erie Shore Drive late this evening through Sunday afternoon.
• Flooding possible in Lighthouse Cove Sunday during the day and evening.
• Risk of thunderstorms for the rest of the day into Sunday morning.

Message:

There is currently a Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie from Environment Canada. The region is currently seeing light winds generally from the east but winds are expected to pick up this evening. Forecasts suggest the east winds will last through the evening possibly approaching 30 km/hr at times. Later in the evening winds are predicted to begin switching. On Lake Erie, winds are predicted to switch through the south, ending up as southwest winds late overnight or early Sunday morning. On Lake St. Clair, winds are predicted to switch through the north, ending up as northwest winds late overnight or early Sunday morning. Later in the morning or early afternoon Sunday the winds on both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair could end up from the west. Some forecasts also suggest wind speeds could reach around 40 km/hr during the day on Sunday. Winds are then predicted to drop and switch back to the southwest overnight Sunday into Monday. Wave forecasts for Sunday suggest there could be waves as high as 2 m on Lake Erie and 0.5 m on Lake St. Clair. In addition to the winds and waves there is risk of thunderstorms for the rest of the day into Sunday morning.

While winds are out of the east through southwest direction, this evening through Sunday afternoon, they will be driving waves onto our Lake Erie shoreline throughout Chatham-Kent and Elgin County. There is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the shoreline, including along the high bluff areas.

While winds are out of the east or northeast, this evening, there is a risk of flooding and shoreline damage in the Rondeau Bay communities of Shrewsbury and the bay side of Erieau. The Rose Beach Line area and shoreline areas around Wheatley would also be at greater risk due to winds from this direction.

Once winds switch more to the south, southeast through southwest, later this evening through Sunday afternoon, there is a greater risk to south facing shoreline communities such as Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Currently, forecasts suggest wind speeds well above the 25 km/hr threshold that have previously caused flooding along Erie Shore Drive.

The west winds though north winds, predicted for overnight period through Sunday, present a risk for Lake St. Clair shoreline areas in the LTVCA jurisdiction. If the wind speeds climb high enough, there is a risk of flooding in the community of Lighthouse Cove, most likely late Sunday morning or afternoon.

In addition to flooding associated with lake setup and waves from strong sustained winds, there is a risk of flooding due to thundershowers and associated weather systems that can cause sudden or unexpected changes in wind and wave conditions and heavy rains. Due to the high lake levels, water is not draining away properly from these shoreline areas, which can lead to greater impacts from thundershowers and prolong flooding.

Residents and workers in shoreline areas should pay attention to local conditions and be prepared. People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until August 3, 2020

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])