Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie
• Southeasterly winds between 20 and 30 km/hr Monday.
• Weather system Monday evening could bring stronger westerly winds.
• Tuesday evening southwest winds could rise up above 25 km/hr Tuesday evening.
• Possibility of flooding along Erie Shore Drive from southerly winds.
• Possibility of brief flooding on either lake when a weather system moves in Monday evening.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie. Currently, winds across the region are between moderate and strong from an east or northeast direction. Forecasts predict that overnight or early Monday morning winds will shift to the southeast. Throughout the day, sustained wind speeds are predicted to be between 20 and 30 km/hr. Monday evening, a weather system is predicted to move into the region bringing rain and a risk of thundershowers. With the system, winds are predicted to switch to the west, or even possibly the northwest, and sustained wind speeds could exceed 40 km/hr with gusts over 60 km/hr. By Tuesday morning, after the system passes, winds are predicted to drop back under 25 km/hr and the switch back to the southwest sometime during the day. There’s a possibility winds could rise back up between 25 and 35 km/hr Tuesday evening or overnight, before becoming light or gentle during the day Wednesday during the day. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves of around 1 m over the next few days, possibly in the 1.5 m range as the weather system passes through Monday evening.

Due to high lake levels and southeast through southwest winds, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Given the generally southerly wind direction over the next few days, there is a possibility of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. The predicted wind speeds are right around the threshold when flooding begins. So if the lower wind speeds are all that appear, there might not be flooding, but if the higher wind speeds appear, some low level flooding could be expected.

The weather system predicted to move into the region Monday evening could bring strong westerly winds. There is some uncertainty at this point exactly how high and from what direction those winds may peak. If wind speeds peak high enough from the southwest, there could be a brief period of more intense flooding along Erie Shore Drive. If wind speeds peak high enough from the northwest, there could be a brief period of flooding around Lighthouse Cove.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until October 14, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])