Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie
• Strong southwest winds overnight into Friday.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Risk of flooding and shoreline damages along Erie Shore Drive, overnight through into Friday morning. Risks to Erie Shore Drive may be higher than typical for such an event due to recent shoreline damages that occurred over the weekend.

Message:

There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie. Winds across the region are currently gentle and generally from the west. Forecasts predict that this afternoon winds will shift to the southwest and remain from that direction until Friday evening. Forecasts predict that by late this evening sustained wind speeds will have risen above 35 km/hr. Sustained wind speeds are predicted to exceed 40 km/hr overnight and to stay strong all the way through Thursday. Most forecasts are predicting winds will peak near 50 km/hr, with gusts over 70 km/hr, sometime late Thursday morning. For Thursday overnight through Friday morning forecasts are still calling for moderate to strong winds with sustained wind speeds predicted in the 35 to 40 km/hr range. Winds are then predicted to drop and to remain gentle to moderate through the weekend. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves of 1.5 to 2 m height during this event.

Given current Lake Erie water levels and the predicted wind speeds, there is a risk of flooding and shoreline damage along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. This risk would last from late this evening all the way through Friday morning. Given the recent damages that occurred to the shoreline last weekend, the risk in the area is even higher than would usually be expected for this kind of event. The long duration predicted for the event could also affect how much flooding and damage occurs.

Due to high lake levels, there is also a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction that would cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until November 21, 2020.