Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning remains in effect for Western Lake Erie
• Forecasts calling for strong southerly winds today, followed by strong west or southwest winds Thursday.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs

Message:

There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie from Environment Canada. Winds are currently moderate across the region and generally from the south. Forecasts are predicting that winds will rise this morning. Down on the Lake Erie shoreline, sustained wind speeds are predicted to range between 35 and 40 km/hr for most of the day and this evening. Forecasts are then calling for a switch to more westerly winds overnight, perhaps even northwesterly winds, and to drop off a little. During the day on Thursday, wind are predicted to switch back more westerly or southwesterly and sustained wind speeds around 35 km/hr could be seen again on Thursday, most likely in the afternoon into the evening. Forecasts suggest moderate to strong west or southwest winds could extend into Friday but then are predicted to switch northwest later in the day and drop off. Wave forecasts are calling for waves around 1 to 1.5 m on Lake Erie.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

There is also a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. The wind speeds and direction predicted for today are within the range that have previously cause flooding in this area. The possibility of flooding Thursday depends on whether the winds get high enough and switch back southwest enough to be pushing waves onshore rather than alongshore. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be strong enough when they switch to the west or northwest to cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until November 19, 2021.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])