Highlights:

• Forecasts calling for moderate to strong southerly winds Wednesday and strong southwest winds on Thursday.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, from Wednesday morning through Thursday.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

Winds are currently light to moderate across the region and generally from the east. Forecasts for areas along the Lake Erie shoreline are calling for winds to switch more southerly for Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning, sustained wind speeds are predicted to climb over 30 km/hr and remain in the 30 to 40 km/hr range throughout the day. Winds are then predicted to rise and switch more to the southwest. However, different forecasts suggest different timings and, depending on the forecast, this change could occur any time between late Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. Forecasts are then calling for sustained wind speeds in the 40 to 55 km/hr range lasting throughout the day Thursday. Thursday evening, winds are predicted to switch more westerly and drop off. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for waves around 1 to 2 m. Temperatures are predicted to remain above freezing during this period.

There is a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, from Wednesday morning though Thursday. Recently, flooding along the road appears to start at around 35 km/hr when winds are from the south. Given that winds in this range could last for two days, and could climb up above 50 km/hr, there is a strong risk of flooding in the area. If wind speeds near the upper end of the forecast last for an extended period of time, the flooding could be significant. Residents in the area should pay close attention to local conditions and be prepared. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be strong enough over Lake St. Clair when they switch to the west to cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until December 17, 2021.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])