Highlights:

• Forecasts calling for southerly winds, above moderate in speed, late Saturday morning through Sunday morning.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent at times during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

For areas along the Lake Erie shoreline in the LTVCA, forecasts are calling for southerly winds, with sustained wind speeds above moderate, staring late Saturday morning and lasting through Sunday morning. Late overnight tonight or early tomorrow morning, winds will switch to the south and begin rising. By late Saturday morning, sustained wind speeds could reach around 35 km/hr. Forecasts suggest that wind will then remain from a generally southerly direction with sustained wind speeds between 30 and 45 km/hr through Sunday morning. Later on Sunday, winds are predicted to switch more west or perhaps northwest. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for wave heights of 1 to 1.5 m in nearshore areas, during this period. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing Saturday afternoon.

There a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent late Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Flooding tends to begin along the road with wind speeds around 35 km/hr from the south. Winds between 40 and 45 km/hr were associated with the flood last Wednesday, so if those wind speeds are reached for more than a few hours, similar flooding could be expected. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years. Early in the event, there could be freezing temperatures leading to icy and slippery conditions.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Winds are not predicted to be strong enough when they switch west to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. Freezing temperatures could also lead to icy, dangerous conditions. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the evening of January 9, 2022.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])