Highlights:

• Some forecasts are calling for moderate to strong winds from the south starting this afternoon and lasting into the overnight period.
• If the strong winds appear, there is a risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding along the Lake Erie shoreline, particularly along Erie Shore Drive.

Message:

Some weather forecasts are calling for moderate to strong southerly winds this afternoon possibly lasting into the overnight period. Winds are currently light out of the southwest and the forecast all seem to agree that the winds will switch to a direction more out of the south this afternoon. However, the forecasts are not consistent with respect to how strong those winds may become. Several forecasts are suggesting winds of around 30 km/hr all evening. Another forecast suggests we could see those winds arrive earlier in the afternoon, and another forecasts suggest a peak wind speed closer to 40 km/hr in the early evening. Other forecasts are suggesting winds will not climb over 30 km/hr at all. Those forecasts that predict waves are calling for more moderate winds with waves of around 1 m in height.

If the forecasts for stronger winds are accurate, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion, all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Flooding could also occur in low lying, south facing shoreline areas such as along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. The long duration of southerly winds in the forecast could produce flooding along Erie Shore Drive even if the wind speeds hold at around 30 km/hr. (Such conditions triggered flooding on Erie Shore Drive last weekend.) Residents should pay attention to local conditions and be prepared.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until January 10, 2020.

Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected]) regarding this message.