Highlights:

• A Special Weather Statement and a Gale Warning have been issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada.
• Strong to gale force winds predicted to begin overnight tonight and last into Sunday morning.
• Flooding likely along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent.
• Some risk of flooding in other low-lying areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Rondeau Bay.
• Some risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

A Special Weather Statement has been issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) due to strong winds, gusting up to 70 or 80 km/h, predicted for Saturday. ECCC’s Marine Forecast also has a Gale Warning in effect for western Lake Erie due to southwest winds approaching 75 km/h on the open lake, from Saturday afternoon into the overnight.

Winds across the region are currently gentle to moderate from the northeast. Winds are predicted to pick up this evening and continue to rise into Saturday. Sustained wind speeds could exceed 50 km/h from a northeasterly or easterly direction Saturday morning, with gusts in the 70 to 80 km/hr range. Sometime around noon, winds are predicted to change over to a southerly and eventually southwesterly direction. Winds will then continue to rise and sustained wind speeds could reach around 60 km/h, with very strong gusts as well, late Saturday afternoon or early evening. Saturday overnight into Sunday, winds will switch more westerly and drop off. As noted in the Marine Forecast, even stronger winds could be seen over the open waters of Lake Erie. Wave forecasts suggest waves of around 2m in nearshore areas with waves exceeding 3 m on the open waters of Lake Erie. Temperatures are supposed to remain above freezing during this time period.

Due to the strong winds and large waves predicted for Lake Erie shoreline areas, flooding will likely be seen along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Although there hadn’t been any significant flooding along Erie Shore Drive over the last year, water levels have been on the rise since the beginning of January and are now back up to levels seen last year at this time. Recent changes to the near-shore and shoreline areas may have also impacted the risk of flooding in the area, as seen by recent flooding along the road last weekend. Flooding along Erie Shore Drive is most likely to be seen from late Saturday morning into the overnight. Residents in the area should pay close attention to local conditions and be prepared.

Due to the long duration of this wind event, with high winds in an onshore direction and associated large waves, there would also be some flooding risk to other low-lying shoreline areas all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the shoreline in Rondeau bay. For the same reason, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

The Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction is not expected to be impacted by this event.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline area during this event. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

This message will be in effect until the evening of March 26, 2022.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])