Highlights:

• Gale Warning remains in effect for western Lake Erie and a Strong Wind Warning is in effect for Lake St. Clair
• Forecasts of sustained winds from the west or southwest, between 30 and 55 km/hr, this afternoon and into the overnight period.
• Possibility of southwest winds above 30 km/hr, overnight Tuesday through Thursday.
• Risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, this afternoon into the overnight period.
• Risk of low level flooding along Erie Shore Drive, overnight Tuesday through Thursday.
• If winds don’t change to the southwest, slight risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding along the Lake St. Clair shoreline, including Lighthouse Cove, this evening.

Message:

The Gale Warning for western Lake Erie remains in effect and there is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for Lake St. Clair. Currently, winds across the region are gentle to moderate and from the west. Forecasts have recently changed. The previous flood message spoke of northwest winds throughout the day today. Most forecasts are now calling for southwest winds today, with a few forecasts suggesting winds may remain more westerly. Most forecast predict that early this afternoon winds will have switched to the southwest and sustained wind speeds will have climbed above 30 km/hr. Forecasts predict winds will rise throughout the afternoon and by late afternoon or early evening the Lake Erie shoreline could see sustained wind speeds as high as 55 km/hr. Wind gusts could be around 80 km/hr. Forecasts predict that winds will switch back more westerly in the evening or early overnight. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie suggest that waves of 2 m in height could be seen this evening. Forecasts for later in the week are calling for southwest winds from overnight Tuesday all the way through Thursday. Forecasts for these days have more uncertainty. However, forecasts suggest that sustained wind speeds could exceed 30 km/hr at times.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Given the predicted southwesterly wind direction, with sustained wind speeds between 30 and 55 km/hr, flooding is possible along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. If southwest winds with speeds at the upper end of the forecast appear, the flooding could be severe. Other south-facing shoreline communities along Lake Erie would also be at some risk. However, this depends on winds switching to the southwest this afternoon as most forecasts suggest and would only last until winds switch back to a more westerly direction this evening. There is also some risk of low level flooding along Erie Shore Drive during the period from overnight Tuesday all the way through Thursday, given current forecasts.

Based on revised forecasts there is now only a slight risk of low level flooding for Lake St. Clair and the Lighthouse Cove area. For this to occur, winds would have to remain westerly rather than switching to the southwest as most forecasts predict. The wind speeds predicted for Lake St. Clair are also not as strong as predicted for Lake Erie. Forecasts for later in the week are calling for southwest winds which would have little impact on the LTVCA’s Lake St. Clair shoreline as they would be mostly offshore.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards.  Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until November 6, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])