Highlights:

• Strong southerly winds predicted tomorrow into Thursday morning.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Flooding and shoreline damages along Erie Shore Drive, possibly from late overnight tonight through into Thursday morning.

Message:

Winds across the region are currently gentle and generally from the west. Forecasts predict that winds will switch to the south this evening and pick up. Down on Lake Erie, sustained wind speeds could reach 30 km/hr late overnight or early tomorrow morning. Forecasts are calling for winds to remain above this speed all the way into Thursday morning. Most forecasts are calling for strong sustained winds around 40 km/hr for most of the day tomorrow and into the overnight. Winds are predicted to peak tomorrow evening or early overnight, with the possibility of sustained wind speeds in the 50 km/hr range and gusts over 75 km/hr. During this period of strong winds, temperatures are expected to be above freezing and small amounts of rain are also predicted. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves of 1.5 to 2 m height during this event.

Given current Lake Erie water levels and the predicted wind speeds, flooding is likely to occur along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. There is also a risk of erosion and shoreline damage in the area. This risk would last from late overnight tonight all the way through into Thursday morning.

Due to high lake levels, there is also a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction that would cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until December 25, 2020.

Message contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])