Highlights:

• Strong south or southwest winds predicted for tomorrow.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent and some risk of flooding in other low-lying shoreline areas.

Message:

Currently, winds are light across the region. Forecasts are predicting that winds will switch to the southeast or south and pick up overnight. Some forecasts are predicting that by early tomorrow morning sustained wind speeds could reach 35 km/hr. During the morning, winds are predicted to shift to the southwest. Wind are predicted to peak around noon with sustained wind speeds between 40 and 50 km/hr and possible gust over 70 km/hr. Winds are then predicted to drop back below 35 km/hr in the evening. While temperatures are expected to be above freezing for most of this event, temperatures will be below freezing leading up to the event and shortly afterwards. There could also be 5 to 10 mm of rain associated with this event. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves between 1 and 2 m in height.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Earlier on in the event, when winds are from the southeast or south, more easterly facing locations such as Rose Beach Line and the area around Wheatley could see greater impacts than are seen from the more typical southwest winds.

Some flooding should also be expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. The lower end of the forecast wind speeds would still cause some flooding in the area. Wind speeds around the upper end of the forecast range usually produce enough flooding to cover many properties and put water across the road in multiple locations.

There would also be some risk of flooding to other low-lying shoreline areas along Lake Erie. Rain and freezing temperatures before and after this wind event could also create slippery conditions. Residents and workers in shoreline areas should be prepared.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction that would cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery, especially when temperatures are below freezing. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until December 31, 2020.

Message contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])