Highlights:

• Strong southwest winds predicted for tomorrow morning and afternoon.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent

Message:

Currently, winds are gentle to moderate across the region and from the southwest. Most forecasts are predicting a period of strong southwest winds down on Lake Erie during the day tomorrow. Some forecasts are predicting that sustained wind speeds above 30 km/hr could be reached by early tomorrow morning. Most forecasts are currently calling for winds to peak late in the morning or in the afternoon, with sustained wind speeds somewhere in the 40 to 45 km/hr range. Winds are then predicted to back off tomorrow evening. Longer range forecasts are somewhat mixed, with some forecasts suggesting sustained wind speeds between and 25 and 30 km/hr on Thursday or the possibility of strong winds near 40 km/hr again on Friday. Temperatures for tomorrow and the rest of the week are generally predicted to be above freezing. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves to start out around 0.5 m in height in the morning and to climb above 1 m, possibly peaking near 1.5 m in height during the afternoon.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

There is also a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. If the predicted 40 to 45 km/hr sustained wind speeds from the southwest appear, there would be flooding along the road. With wind speeds in that range, enough water usually collects to cover people’s yards and flow across the roadway. Residents and workers in the area should be prepared.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction that would cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until January 14, 2021.

Message contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])