Highlights:

• Strong winds in the forecast beginning overnight and lasting into Wednesday.
• Risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Erie Shore Drive and the high bluff areas.
• Some risk of freezing wave spray on Tuesday.

Message:

Weather forecasts are calling for strong, mostly southwesterly winds, beginning overnight and lasting into Wednesday. Currently winds are out of the east at around 30 km/hr but are predicted to drop this afternoon. Winds are then predicted to pick up again after midnight. Sometime late overnight or in the early morning winds are predicted to make a quick change through the south, ending up as southwesterly winds. Forecasts suggest some of the strongest winds could occur early tomorrow morning with various forecasts calling for winds between 40 and 60 km/hr. Winds are then expected to remain strong for the rest of Monday all the way into Wednesday with winds speeds generally between 30 and 50 km/hr. Then late overnight Tuesday or early Wednesday, winds are predicted to have moved to a more westerly direction, and to drop below 30 km/hr later on Wednesday. Wave forecasts are generally calling for waves on Lake Erie between 1 and 2 m in height during this period, possibly up to 3 m on the open lake. Temperatures are also predicted to fall back beneath freezing on Tuesday.

There is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion, all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Flooding should also be expected in low lying shoreline areas such as along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. (Communities such as Erieau and Rose Beach Line in Chatham-Kent are sheltered from such effects when winds are from the southwest.) While the southwest wind direction doesn’t produce the worst flooding effects, the prolonged period of high winds could have a greater impact than expected. In addition, the freezing temperatures predicted for Tuesday could add a level of hazard if the winds haven’t switched to the west by that time. Wave spray and flood waters could freeze against structures and across the ground. This could block building exits, seal up exhaust vents from homes, or lead to treacherous walking and driving conditions. Residents should pay attention to local conditions and be prepared.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. Flooding shoreline areas can be especially hazardous in freezing conditions. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until January 2, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])