Highlights:

• Gale Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie
• Forecasts calling for strong southerly winds this evening through Wednesday morning.
• Strong risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, from late this afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Risk of freezing wave spray and floodwaters late this afternoon into the overnight.

Message:

There is currently a Gale Warning in effect from Environment Canada’s Marine Forecast. Winds are currently gentle to moderate across the region and from the south or southwest. Forecasts are calling for winds to rise this afternoon and sustained wind speeds could reach 35 km/hr by late this afternoon. Winds are then predicted to continue rising through the evening, peaking late this evening or early in the overnight. Forecasts are calling for wind to peak with sustained wind speeds in the 45 to 60 km/hr range, with the potential for even higher gusts. Winds are then predicted to drop later overnight and through the morning. Some forecasts suggest sustained wind speeds might not drop back down below 35 km/hr until Wednesday afternoon. Winds are predicted to remain from the south or southwest during this entire period. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for waves around 1.5 to 2 m in nearshore areas and 2 to 3 m on the open lake. Temperatures are predicted to rise above freezing during the overnight.

There is a strong risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, starting late this afternoon and lasting into Wednesday afternoon. Should the predicted peak wind speeds of 45 to 60 km/hr be reached, there could be significant flooding in the area. (The flooding seen last Wednesday was associated with winds between 40 and 45 km/hr.) Winds are not predicted to rise above freezing until sometime overnight, so until that time there is a risk of freezing wave spray and floodwaters. Residents in the area should pay close attention to local conditions and be prepared. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. The risk of freezing conditions into the overnight also exists along the entire Lake Erie shoreline.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction to cause issues along Lake St. Clair in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. Freezing wave spray and frozen floodwaters can lead to icy, dangerous conditions. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary. However, due to the overnight nature of this event, LTVCA staff may not be able to upgrade this notice to a Flood Warning.

This message will be in effect until January 13, 2022.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])