Highlights:

• Forecasts calling for strong southerly winds this evening through Wednesday morning.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, from early this evening through Wednesday morning.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

Winds are currently moderate across the region and generally from the west. Forecasts are calling for winds to switch to the southwest or south this afternoon and to begin climbing. Down on the Lake Erie shoreline, sustained wind speeds could reach 35 km/hr by early this evening. Winds are predicted to peak during the overnight period with sustained wind speeds in the 40 to 50 km/hr range, with wind gusts possibly approaching 80 km/hr. Winds are then predicted to drop off Wednesday morning and switch more westerly. Forecasts suggest that by early afternoon wind will have either dropped below 35 km/hr or have switched to the west. The Lake Erie shoreline has yet to freeze over along most of its length in the LTVCA. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for waves around 1.5 to 2 m in nearshore areas and 2 to 3 m on the open lake. Temperatures are predicted to rise above freezing this afternoon or early this evening.

There is a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, starting early this evening and lasting through Wednesday morning. Should the predicted peak wind speeds of 40 to 50 km/hr be reached, there could be flooding similar to what was seen last week. (The flooding seen last Tuesday was associated with winds between 40 and 50 km/hr over a 6-hour period.) Residents in the area should pay close attention to local conditions and be prepared. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Currently, there is no risk of issues along Lake St. Clair shoreline as that lake has frozen over.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary. However, due to the overnight nature of this event, LTVCA staff may not be able to upgrade this notice to a Flood Warning.

This message will be in effect until the evening of January 19, 2022.