Highlights:

• Forecasts calling for strong southwest winds late Saturday morning through the evening, possibly lasting into Sunday morning.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Risk of freezing wave spray and floodwaters also during this period

Message:

Winds are currently gentle across the region and generally from the east. Forecasts predict that winds will switch through the south overnight becoming southwest by the morning. Overnight and through Saturday morning, winds are predicted to rise. Down on the Lake Erie shoreline, sustained wind speeds could rise above 35 km/hr by late in the morning on Saturday. Winds are predicted to peak in the afternoon or early evening Saturday with sustained wind speeds between 35 and 45 km/hr, with possibly slightly stronger winds further east along the lake. Winds are predicted to switch more westerly and eventually to the northwest, however, various forecasts have different timing for that shift, predicting it any time between early Saturday evening through late Sunday morning. Wind speeds are also predicted to drop off as they become northwesterly, but the timing of that also depends on which forecast, potentially any time between Saturday evening and late Sunday morning. The western basin of Lake Erie is largely frozen over, however, along the shoreline in the central basin through most of the LTVCA, the shoreline is just starting to freeze over and remains largely open. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for waves around 1 to 1.5 m. Temperatures are predicted to remain below freezing during this period. The Marine Forecast notes a risk of freezing spray Saturday evening.

There is a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, starting late Saturday morning and possibly lasting into Sunday morning. Should the upper range of the predicted peak wind speed appear, there could be flooding similar to that seen over the last few weeks. There is also a risk of freezing wave spray and the freezing of floodwaters. However, repeated wave spray over the last few weeks has also built up a significant amount of ice on the shore itself in some areas, which may provide some additional protection from the waves and wave spray. Residents in the area should pay close attention to local conditions and be prepared. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. The risk of freezing conditions also exists along the entire Lake Erie shoreline.

The Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction would not be impacted as that lake has largely frozen over.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. Freezing wave spray and frozen floodwaters can lead to icy, dangerous conditions. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the evening of January 23, 2022.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])