Highlights:

• Forecasts calling for strong south or southwest winds overnight into Thursday evening.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

Along the Lake Erie shoreline in the LTVCA area of jurisdiction, there are strong south or southwest winds in the forecast beginning overnight tonight (Wednesday) and lasting into early tomorrow (Thursday) evening. Winds are predicted to switch more southerly this afternoon and will begin rising overnight tonight. Forecasts suggest sustained wind speeds could rise above 40 km/hr during the early overnight period. In the morning (on Thursday), winds are predicted to switch more southwest and to rise further. Throughout the day, winds are predicted to remain between 45 and 60 km/hr, with gusts over 70km/hr possibly reaching as high as 90 km/hr at times. In the early evening, winds are predicted to drop off and switch more westerly. Wave forecasts suggest waves up to around 2 m could be seen in nearshore areas.

Due to the strong winds and waves being forecast, there is a risk of flooding and shoreline damage along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. The risk of flooding begins during the overnight period and could last into early tomorrow evening. The wind speeds and directions in the forecasts have caused flooding in the area over the last few years and water levels are currently just slightly above where they were at this time last year. Should the higher wind speeds last for more than a few hours the flooding could be significant. The long duration of the wind event could worsen the flooding as well. Residents in the area should pay close attention to local conditions and be prepared. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

The Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction is not expected to be impacted by this event.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until April 1, 2022.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])