Highlights:

• Special Weather Statement and Gale Warning in effect due to strong winds in the forecast.
• Forecasts calling for strong south or southwest winds overnight and throughout the day Sunday.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement for the region and a Gale Warning for western Lake Erie. Forecasts are calling for winds to switch to the south this evening and to begin rising. Overnight, down on the Lake Erie shoreline, sustained wind speeds will climb above 35 km/hr and switch more to the southwest. Winds will continue to climb and during the day Sunday peak wind speeds are predicted to be in the range of 45 to 55 km/hr depending on the forecast. The Marine Forecast suggest winds around 65 km/hr could be seen over the open lake. The Special Weather Statement also calls for gusts of 80 to 90 km/hr during the day Sunday with the possibility of local gusting over 100 km/hr. Winds are then predicted to switch more to the west Sunday afternoon and to drop back to moderate in the evening. There is still some ice cover on Lake Erie but it is breaking up and could move around. Some areas have lost their shoreline ice as well. This make wave forecasts difficult, but the Marine Forecasts still suggests waves of 1 m could be seen on Lake Erie during the day on Sunday.

There is a risk of flooding and shoreline damage along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent beginning overnight, but more likely during the day on Sunday. The wind speeds and directions in the forecasts have caused significant flooding in the area over the last few years and water levels are currently fairly close to where they were at this time last year. However, the ice on the lake and along the shoreline makes it difficult to predict whether there will be flooding or how much, especially as the ice on the lake could move around. In addition, there could be shoreline damage due to the remaining ice attached to shoreline protection works and ice on the lake being pushed to the shore. Residents in the area should pay close attention to local conditions and be prepared. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

The Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction would not be impacted as that lake is still largely frozen over on the eastern side of the lake.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could still be icy, dangerous conditions along the shoreline. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until March 7, 2022.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])