Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie
• Forecasts calling for strong winds late this evening through Monday.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent.
• Some risk of flooding along the Rondeau Bay shoreline
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs, but especially for east facing areas such as Rose Beach Line and around Wheatley.
• Rainfall Warning also in effect from Environment Canada

Message:

There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie from Environment Canada. Currently, winds across the region are light and generally from the east. Forecasts are predicting that winds will begin to rise this afternoon and will continue to rise into the overnight or perhaps into tomorrow. Forecasts are generally calling for winds to remain from the east or northeast into Monday morning when most forecasts are calling for a switch to southerly winds. Then, later on Monday, forecasts are calling for a switch to more northerly winds. Down on Lake Erie, sustained wind speeds from this generally easterly direction are predicted to peak in the 40 to 45 km/hr range and could reach those speeds late this evening. There is some uncertainty as to what may happen to wind speeds into Monday, with some forecast call for a drop when winds switch to the south, while other forecasts are calling for winds to rise, potentially as high as 55 km/hr. Winds are then predicted to drop off Monday overnight into Tuesday. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for waves around 1 to 1.5 m in height during this time period.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. While winds are from the east, those east facing shoreline areas such Rose Beach Line, Rondeau and around Wheatley will be more vulnerable than usual.

There is some risk of flooding in those communities along the Rondeau Bay shoreline, mostly overnight into Monday morning. East and northeast winds could slightly raise water levels in the bay and those winds will be pushing waves towards Shrewsbury and the bay side of Erieau. The extent of such flooding would depend on how high the winds get. Should the winds switch to the south as predicted there could be impacts to other areas along the Rondeau shoreline.

There is also a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent on Monday. Most forecasts are calling for southerly winds easily in the range that has caused flooding along the road in the past. If higher wind speeds appear, the flooding could be more significant. Residents and workers in the area should be prepared for the possibility of flooding. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be strong enough when they switch to the north to cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

There is also a Rainfall Warning in effect from Environment Canada. Rainfall totals from this afternoon through Monday are predicted to be in the 20 to 60 mm range. Heavy rains could also cause flooding in low-lying shoreline areas. Due to the high lake levels, the groundwater table is high and storm water sewer systems and local watercourses are full with lake water. As a result, rainwater is not draining properly from these areas. Any water from upstream making its way downstream on local watercourses into these shoreline areas could cause additional flooding.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until October 26, 2021.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])