Highlights:

• Forecasts calling for periods of strong southerly winds this evening through Friday afternoon.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent at times during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

Weather forecasts for areas along the Lake Erie shoreline in the LTVCA suggest the possibility of strong southerly winds this evening through Friday afternoon. Currently winds across the region are gentle to moderate and generally from the south. Although the various forecasts are not all in agreement, some forecasts suggest that sustain wind speeds this evening could rise above 35 km/hr and possibly reach up to around 45 km/hr late overnight or early Thursday morning. Most forecasts are also calling for a period of more westerly winds beginning late overnight or early Thursday morning before moving back to more southwesterly in the afternoon. Wind for the rest of Thursday through Friday afternoon are predicted to be strong at times with sustained wind speeds in the in the 25 to 45 km/hr range before dropping off Friday evening. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for wave heights of around 1 m to 2 m during this period.

Based on these weather forecasts, there a risk of flooding at times along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent this evening through Friday afternoon. Should the region only see wind speeds at the lower end of their predicted ranges, flooding would not be expected. Also, while winds are out of the west (currently predicted for Thursday morning) winds would be pushing offshore and flooding would not be expected. However, some forecasts are calling for periods with strong sustained winds from the south or southwest up over 40 km/hr and should they last for more than a few hours, flooding should be expected along Erie Shore Drive. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Winds are not predicted to be strong enough when they switch west to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the evening of April 16, 2022.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])