Highlights:

• Moderate to strong, west or southwest, winds predicted overnight into Friday morning.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive

Message:

Winds across the region are currently gentle to moderate and generally from the west. Forecasts predict that sustained wind speeds overnight could be in the 30 to 35 km/hr range. Overnight or tomorrow morning, winds are predicted to switch more southwesterly. Sustained wind speeds are predicted to climb into the 35 to 45 km/hr range for the rest of the day tomorrow and into the evening period. Some forecasts suggest that late tomorrow evening or overnight, winds are predicted to switch back more westerly. Sustained wind speeds in the 30 to 35 km/hr range are then predicted to last into Friday afternoon. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves in the 1 to 2 m height range.

Due to high lake levels, there is also a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

There is also a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. There is some uncertainty when considering the various forecasts regarding wind direction and speed. Should winds stay more westerly instead of southwesterly, this would reduce the risk of flooding. Also, the lower end of the forecasted wind speeds would not be expected to produce significant flooding at this time of the year due to lower lake levels. However, southwesterly winds with speeds in the upper end of the forecasted range would produce flooding in the area. Residents and workers in the area should still be prepared for some risk of flooding.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction that would cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

The Strong Wind Warning program from Environment Canada’s Marine Forecast has ended for the season. Although forecasts may suggest strong winds, Strong Wind Warnings are not being issued.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until December 5, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])