Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie
• Some forecasts calling for moderate to strong southwest winds overnight, followed by strong west or southwest winds tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon.
• Some risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie from Environment Canada. Currently, winds across the region are gentle to moderate and generally from the southwest. Forecasts are predicting that winds will rise this evening into the overnight period. Some forecasts suggest that down on the Lake Erie shoreline sustained wind speeds could reach into the 30 to 35 km/hr range from late this evening into early tomorrow morning. Forecasts are calling for more westerly winds during the day tomorrow (Tuesday) with a period of stronger winds in the late afternoon or evening. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in these forecasts for Tuesday afternoon winds, with some forecasts calling for southwest winds and others calling for northwest winds, and various forecasts calling for peak sustained wind speeds ranging anywhere from 30 to 50 km/hr. Winds are then predicted to drop off for Wednesday, but some long-range forecasts are calling for strong winds again late on Wednesday. Wave forecasts are generally calling for around 0.5 to 1 m waves in nearshore areas with 2 m waves on the open lake. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing during this period.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

There is also some risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. The 30 to 35 km/hr winds that some forecasts are predicting for late this evening into early tomorrow would cause flooding on some properties and could even put water onto the roadway. The higher winds predicted for Tuesday afternoon or evening could cause greater flooding should the winds actually come out of a southwest direction. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be strong enough over Lake St. Clair to cause issues for that shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction when they switch to the west or northwest.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until December 1, 2021.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])