Highlights:

• A Special Weather Statement and a Gale Warning are in effect from Environment and Climate Change Canada.
• Strong east and southeast winds with strong gusts forecast late this evening through Thursday morning.
• Potential impacts to east and south facing shorelines.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement due to the possibility of strong southeasterly winds, gusting up to 80 km/hr, from early Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Their Marine Forecast has issued a Gale Warning due to wind forecasts suggesting sustained wind speeds up to 65 km/hr from the southeast could be seen on the open waters of Lake Erie overnight tonight into early Thursday morning.

Winds across the region are currently moderate to strong and generally from the east. Weather forecasts are calling for winds to rise throughout this afternoon into the late overnight or early morning period. Along LTVCA Lake Erie shoreline areas, sustained wind speeds are predicted to reach between 45 and 55 km/hr by early Thursday morning. Wind gusts up to 80 km/hr could be seen late overnight or Thursday morning. At some point late overnight or early Thursday morning, winds are predicted to switch more southeasterly. Winds are then predicted to drop off and be more southerly Thursday afternoon. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for wave heights of around 1.5 m to 2 m in nearshore areas with 2 to 3 m waves on the open lake. The strong sustained east winds will produce lake setup in west end of Lake Erie and lake levels from Rondeau to Wheatley could rise 25 to 30 cm due to this effect. Temperatures are predicted to remain around the freezing point or slightly above during this period.

Based on these weather forecasts, there is a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent beginning overnight through Thursday morning. Southeasterly wind, currently predicted for late overnight into Thursday morning, have in the past affected Erie Shore Drive. Rondeau tends to block easterly winds from impacting Erie Shore Drive. Whether any flooding occurs and the degree of that flooding would depend on when winds switch to the southeast and how strong those winds still are when that change in direction occurs. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

There is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. The region does not see strong easterly winds as often as westerly winds and these strong easterly winds have the potential to impact east facing shoreline areas to a greater degree than has been seen over the last year. Although lake levels have dropped significantly over the last year, there could still be unforeseen impacts in these areas.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the evening of December 15th.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])