Highlights:

• A Special Weather Statement and a Gale Warning are in effect from Environment and Climate Change Canada.
• Strong south through west winds with strong gusts forecast for overnight tonight and throughout the day Saturday.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement due to strong winds in the forecast for Saturday with gusts up to 90 km/hr associated with a passing cold front. Their Marine Forecast has issued a Gale Warning due to wind forecasts suggesting sustained wind speeds up to 65 km/hr could be seen on the open waters of Lake Erie on Saturday.

Winds across the region are currently moderate and from the south. Weather forecasts for Lake Erie shoreline areas are calling for winds to rise this evening and overnight. Along LTVCA Lake Erie shoreline areas, sustained wind speeds are predicted to reach between 40 and 55 km/hr from the south or southwest. Later in the morning on Saturday, winds are predicted to switch more westerly and to drop off in the late afternoon or early evening. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for wave heights of around 1 m to 2 m in nearshore areas with 2 to 3 m waves on the open lake. Temperatures are predicted to remain above freezing until Saturday evening.

Based on these weather forecasts, there is a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent beginning overnight and lasting until winds shift to the west, which is currently predicted for late Saturday morning. Southwesterly winds have in the past affected Erie Shore Drive, while westerly winds are largely offshore and tend to not cause flooding. The degree of flooding would depend on the wind speed, direction and duration. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Due to high lake levels and wave conditions, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until December 4th.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])