Highlights:

• Special Weather Statement in effect from Environment Canada due to strong winds in the forecast
• Strong south or southwest winds forecast late overnight and throughout the day Wednesday
• Risk of minor flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

There is currently a Special Weather Statement in effect from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) due to forecasts of strong winds, gusting to near 80 km/h, late Wednesday morning until late Wednesday afternoon. Weather forecasts are calling for southerly winds to rise overnight. Various forecasts suggest that, down on the Lake Erie shoreline, sustained wind speeds could reach 40 to 45 km/h by dawn. Winds are predicted to switch more southwest during the day and peak wind speeds of 45 to 50 km/h, with gust as high as 80 km/h, could be seen in the afternoon. Winds are then predicted to switch more westerly and drop off in the evening. The ice on Lake Erie has mostly melted away and the lake is now open throughout the LTVCA jurisdiction. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie suggest wave heights of 1 to 1.5 m. Temperatures are predicted to stay above freezing throughout this event. While Lake Erie water levels had dropped quite a bit in the latter half of 2022, they have generally been rising since the beginning of the year and are nearly back up to where they were at this time last year.

Based on these weather forecasts, there is some risk of minor flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent late overnight and throughout the day Wednesday. These higher wind speeds in the forecast have the potential to create waves that could cause minor flooding to properties in the area. Flooding would likely be limited to the rear yards of homes with some accumulation in the front yards. It is unlikely that water would accumulate enough to make it onto the roadway. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until February 16th.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])