Highlights:

• Strong winds in the forecast Friday afternoon into Sunday afternoon.
• Risk of flooding and freezing wave spray along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Some risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

Forecasts are calling for a period of strong winds beginning Friday afternoon and lasting all the way through into Sunday afternoon. While Warnings have not yet been issued by Canadian authorities, NOAA already has a Gale Watch in effect. Friday afternoon winds are expected to be out of the east. Through the afternoon and evening winds are predicted to switch more southerly, becoming southwesterly overnight into Saturday. Winds are then predicted to generally remain from the southwest through Saturday and Sunday, although some forecasts suggest they may end up more westerly. Forecasts suggest sustained wind speeds could exceed 45 km/h Friday afternoon, with gusts up to 70 km/hr. Winds are predicted to continue climbing with sustained wind speeds likely peaking on Saturday morning, possibly reaching 65 km/h, with possible gusts over 80 km/hr. Winds aren’t predicted to drop back beneath 45 km/h until late in the day Sunday. There is some uncertainty in these forecasts given how far in the future they are predicting winds. Wave forecasts suggest wave heights of 2 m could be seen in nearshore areas overnight Friday through Saturday, possible reaching 3 m on Saturday. Forecasts are also calling for 10 to 30 mm of rain on Friday and early Saturday. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing on Saturday.

Based on these weather forecasts, there is a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent from Friday afternoon through into Sunday afternoon. Although there has been little flooding recently along the road, these are the strongest winds that have been forecast for quite some time. In addition to concerns about waves overtopping shoreline protections and flooding from wave spray, there is a risk of freezing wave spray for Saturday and Sunday. With the return of freezing temperatures on Saturday, any standing water or spray coming over the shoreline could freeze across the ground or onto structures. Any water making it to the roadway could lead to slippery conditions on the road. Residents in the area should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Due to high lake levels and wave conditions, there is also some risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Winds are not predicted to be from a direction to cause issues along the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the morning of January 15th.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])