Highlights:

• A Strong Wind Warning and a Special Weather Statement are in effect from Environment Canada.
• Strong southerly winds with gusts forecast tonight into the overnight tomorrow.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

There is currently a Strong Wind Warning in effect from the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Marine Forecast due to strong southerly winds predicted over western Lake Erie. There is also a Special Weather Statement in effect from ECCC due to even stronger wind gusts Saturday afternoon and evening. Winds across the region are currently moderate and from the south. Weather forecasts suggest that, down on the Lake Erie shoreline, sustained wind speeds could climb above 35 km/hr this evening or during the overnight. Strong winds are then predicted for Saturday with sustained wind speeds ranging from 35 to 55 km/hr, depending on the timing and what forecast one looks at. The Special Weather Statement is suggesting that Satuday afternoon and evening there could be winds gusts between 70 and 80 km/hr with isolated gusts of up to 90 km/hr. Winds are then predicted to drop off during the overnight. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for wave heights of around 1 m to 1.5 m in nearshore areas, building to 2 m on the open late Saturday evening.

Based on these weather forecasts, there a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent from tonight into the overnight tomorrow. Should only the lower wind speeds in the forecast appear, any flooding should be fairly limited. However, given the longer duration of this wind event together with forecasts of significantly higher wind speeds and gusts, there is the possibility of flooding to an extent not seen since last spring. Flooding could extend to more properties than seen recently and possibly make it onto the roadway. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the afternoon of November 6th.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])