Highlights:

• A Strong Wind Warning and a Special Weather Statement are in effect from Environment Canada.
• Strong southerly winds, with very strong gusts, forecast from late this afternoon into the overnight.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

There is currently a Strong Wind Warning in effect from Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Marine Forecast due to strong southerly winds predicted over western Lake Erie. There is also a Special Weather Statement in effect from Environment and Climate Change Canada due to even stronger gusts beginning this afternoon and ending overnight. Winds are currently moderate and from the south across the region. Forecasts are calling for strong southerly winds to develop ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Weather forecasts suggest that down on the Lake Erie shoreline sustained wind speeds could climb above 35 km/hr late this afternoon. Current forecasts suggest that sustained wind speeds could peak between 40 and 50 km/hr this evening. The Special Weather Statement is suggesting winds gusts between 70 and 90 km/hr. Winds are predicted to drop off this evening or overnight with the passage of the front and to switch more westerly. There is also a risk of thunderstorms this evening. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for wave heights of around 1 m to 1.5 m during this period.

Based on these weather forecasts, there a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent from late this afternoon into the overnight period. Should only the lower wind speeds in the forecast appear, any flooding should be fairly limited. However, if the higher wind speeds appear and last for more than a few hours, flooding could extend to more properties and possibly make it onto the roadway. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the morning of October 13th.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])