Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect from Environment Canada.
• Moderate to strong southwest winds in the forecast from Thursday morning through Saturday.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this time period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

There is currently a Strong Wind Warning in effect from Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Marine Forecast due to forecasts of strong southwest winds predicted over western Lake Erie. Winds across the region are currently from the west or northwest direction. Current forecasts predict that by Thursday morning winds will have switched to a southwest direction and remain from the southwest through Saturday. Forecasts are also calling for moderate to strong sustained wind speeds for this entire time period with sustained wind speeds down on the Lake Erie shoreline between 35 and 40 km/hr most of the time. Wind forecasts for Saturday and Sunday are quite far out to expect too much accuracy, but winds are predicted to drop off on Sunday. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for wave heights of around 1 m to 1.5 m in nearshore areas and 1.5 m to 2 m on the open lake during this period.

Based on these weather forecasts, there is a risk of flooding at times along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent from Thursday morning though Saturday. Should the wind speeds remain in the predicted range, any flooding should be fairly limited. However, any low-level flooding that appears could be made worse by the long length of time that the winds and waves are predicted to last. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the evening of October 23rd.