Highlights:

• Current water levels are down from where they were at this time of the year from 2017 through 2021, but are still well above average.
• With the drop in water levels, near gale force or stronger winds are now required to create the waves that cause flooding along much of the LTVCA shoreline.
• However, strong sustained wind speeds can still create waves that cause flooding, erosion, and shoreline damage in the Erie Shore Drive area.
• There is still a risk of erosion and damage to shoreline protection works, including erosion along the high bluffs.

Message:

Average daily water levels on Lake Erie at the beginning of September were around 174.52 m (I.G.L.D.). This is down about 35 cm from last year’s peak daily average water level record set on July 21st. The all-time record high monthly average for September was 174.87 m, set in 2019. Water levels at the beginning of September were still 33 cm above what would be considered normal for the month of September. Water levels on Lake Erie peaked in June and are now into their seasonal decline. Forecasts suggest water levels could drop around 13 cm by the beginning of October.

Average daily water levels on Lake St. Clair at the beginning of September were around 175.46 m (I.G.L.D.). This is down about 35 cm from last year’s peak daily average water level record set on July 17th. The all-time record high monthly average for September was 175.88, set in 2020. Water levels at the beginning of September were 34 cm above what would be considered normal for the month of September. Water levels on Lake St. Clair peaked in June and are now into their seasonal decline. Forecasts suggest water levels could drop by around 10 cm by the beginning of October.

While current water levels on the lakes are still around 30 to 35 cm above average for this time of the year, water levels on both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair have fallen back down below September water levels seen from 2017 to 2021.

With lower water levels, the risk of shoreline flooding has decreased. Along the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA, it is expected that sustained gale force winds (above 60 km/hr) would now be needed to produce shoreline flooding. Along most of the Lake Erie shoreline conditions have also improved. Some areas along the shoreline are also now looking at wind speeds closer to gale force before flooding would occur. While significant flooding has not been seen for several months now down on Erie Shore Drive, this may have more to do with the lighter winds seen over the last few months. Current water levels on Lake Erie are only a centimetres below what were seen last winter when flooding was still being seen in the area. Flooding along Erie Shore Drive could still occur with sustained winds at around 35 km/hr from a southerly (southwest through southeast) direction.

Erosion and shoreline damage are still concerns along the Great Lakes shorelines. The same waves that cause flooding can damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion in unprotected areas. The bluff areas all along the Lake Erie shoreline are also at a greater risk of erosion due to the high lake levels, especially when there are onshore winds and waves. Along the bluffs, the erosion can cause the bluffs to fail and there have been times over the last few years when many metres of land have fallen into the lake all at one time. Such failures do not necessarily happen during a high wind and wave event, and exactly when the bluff may fail is not something that can be predicted.

Shoreline residents need to pay attention to local conditions and prepare accordingly. Should an event occur, people should be extra careful and avoid the shoreline and any waterways with high water levels. The waves on the lakes can be strong, and the shoreline and the banks of waterways can be slippery and unstable. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shoreline. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Please contact your local municipality should flooding and/or erosion events occur, or should events occur that could impact roadways and other public infrastructure. If there is an urgent risk to personal safety, call 911.

This is a standing message issued for the month of September. Should weather forecasts suggest a sustained wind event likely to cause shoreline issues, this message will be upgraded.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])