Highlights:

• Strong southwest winds in the forecast for late Wednesday morning into Thursday.

• Some risk of localized flooding for properties along Lake Erie.

• Some risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

There are currently a Special Weather Statement and a Marine Forecast Gale Warning in effect from Environment and Climate Change Canada. Winds across the region are currently a gentle breeze from the southwest. Winds will rise overnight and are expected to be strong by late Wednesday morning. Forecasts suggest that down on the Lake Erie shoreline, sustained wind speeds could exceed 60 km/h in the afternoon, with gusts possibly as high as 90 km/h. Most forecasts predict that winds will switch to a more westerly direction overnight into Thursday morning but remain strong. Winds are then expected to switch more northwesterly and drop off Thursday overnight into Friday. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie suggest wave heights of 1.5 to 2.5 m in near shore areas with up to 4 m waves on the open lake.

Water levels on Lake Erie are currently near their long-term average, and in some areas, beaches have now reappeared. However, due to the predicted wave conditions, there is some risk that wave action could cause erosion and damage along the LTVCA’s Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Where waves can reach the shoreline, there is a risk of localized shoreline flooding from the storm surge or wave spray. Once winds switch to the west, the risk drops off. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Wind and wave conditions are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the morning of November 28th.

Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])