Highlights:

• Warm temperatures continue to melt the snow in the Thames River watershed.

• Most of the Lower Thames watershed received less than 5 mm of rain since last night.

• Smaller watercourses are responding and are filled with snow and ice which may lead to localized flooding.

• The Thames River is expected to rise, but for the next few days, it is not expected to reach flood levels.  Further updates may be required as the melt continues.  River ice should be considered unsafe.

Message:

A warm weather system moved into the region last weekend, bringing with it a week of daytime highs above freezing.  The warm weather has started to melt the snow out of the Lower Thames watershed.  Much of the snow in the west of the Lower Thames has already melted away.  Although rainfall forecasts for last night and today had been calling for substantially more rain, most of the watershed received less than 5 mm of rain.  Forecasts for the rest of the week are calling for daytime highs to remain above freezing with some additional rain.  Weather conditions are expected to continue to melt the remaining snowpack.

Smaller watercourses in the region are responding to the melt.  While most aren’t expected to spill their banks, many of these smaller watercourses and drainage ditches have been filled in with snow and ice which can block flows causing localized flooding.  The LTVCA no longer expects to have to operate the McGregor Creek Diversion Channel in Chatham.

While the Thames River is expected to rise, it is no longer expected to rise high enough to flood the low-lying river flats adjacent to the river from Delaware down to Thamesville.  For the next few days, water levels on the Thames in Chatham are expected to remain below the level of the sidewalk along the river in the downtown.  Water levels should be expected to rise into early next week.  How high the river may get will depend on how the melt in the upper Thames watershed proceeds over the next few days.  An additional update may be required in the coming days.

The Thames River had developed a significant ice cover of between 20-30 cm in the downstream areas.  That ice cover has begun to degrade with the warm temperatures and rain.  For the next few days at least, the flows on the river are not anticipated to get high enough to cause that river ice to break up.  As flows on the river increase, this will continue to weaken the ice.  The ice on the river should be considered unsafe.

As water levels rise, the ice on these watercourses should be considered unsafe.  The combination of slippery banks, unstable ice conditions, and fast-moving cold water can be dangerous.  Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards.  People should stay out of any flooded areas and not drive through flooded roadways.  Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from the water. It is not safe to take shelter along riverbanks or in low lying areas that are prone to flooding.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until February 23rd, 2026.

Message Contact:  Jason Wintermute ([email protected])