Highlights:

• Mild temperatures in the forecast today with daytime highs up to 10 C and up 5 mm of rain.
• Water levels on many local watercourses rose yesterday and overnight, some reaching back full conditions or spilling out into the adjacent flood flats. This will continue today for some watercourses.
• Possible localized flooding in areas with poor drainage or on local watercourses from ice and snow blockages

Message:

Another mild day is in the forecast today. Temperatures are already above freezing and the daytime highs today are predicted to approach 10 Celcius. Small amounts of rain could be seen this morning but the majority of this system is expected to pass to our south. Rain is also forecast this afternoon and this evening. Rainfall totals predicted to be around 5 mm. Cooler temperatures are predicted to return Monday.

Most of the snow in the west of the watershed has already melted and weather conditions today will cause most of the remaining snow to melt. In the east of the watershed, the snow will continue to melt and runoff will occur. Water levels on many smaller local watercourses rose yesterday and overnight, some reaching back full conditions or spilling out into the adjacent flood flats. Water levels on McGregor Creek near Chatham peaked overnight, slightly below the threshold for operating the Diversion Channel. Water levels on McGregor Creek and some other watercourses are now dropping. Melting snow and rain today will continue to boost water levels. Some watercourses will rise further today, and some could reach back full conditions or spill out into the adjacent flood flats. Generally, flooding is expected to be limited to these low areas adjacent to the watercourses. However, localized flooding may occur in areas with poor drainage or along smaller local watercourses blocked with ice and snow.

Earlier this week, ice thickness on the Thames River was measured to be between 13 and 25 cm through the downstream areas where ice jamming typically occurs. Flows on the river are causing it to rise slightly, which will cause the ice to weaken. Flows are not expected to rise high enough over the next few days to cause breakup of the river ice. The warm weather and rain will further weaken the ice.

People should take extra caution and avoid the river, creeks, ditches and streams. Around open watercourses, the combination of slippery banks and fast moving cold water can be dangerous. On the Thames River, slippery conditions and weakening ice can also be dangerous. Children and animals should be kept away from watercourses.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until March 2nd, 2021.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])