Lower Thames

Conservation

Watershed Condition Statement – Flood Outlook – Smaller watercourses and Thames River – December 27, 2025 – 11:30 AM

by | Dec 27, 2025 | Flood Notices

Highlights:

  • Significant rain in the forecast for tomorrow could lead to some flooding.  
  • Forecasts calling for 35 to 45 mm of rain. 
  • Areas of ponding, standing water, and localized flooding are expected around the watershed.
  • Smaller watercourses expected to rise and spill their banks into adjacent low-lying areas.
  • Thames River expected to rise and flood the low-lying areas adjacent to the river.

Message:

A warm and wet weather system is expected to move into the region tomorrow (Sunday) morning, bringing significant amounts of rain. The rain is expected to last from Sunday morning until Monday morning. Monday morning, temperatures are expected to fall below freezing and the rain may change over to snow. Rainfall totals are predicted to be in the 35 to 45 mm range, with one outlier forecast currently suggesting we could see up to 75 mm. Given the time of the year, and recent rains, the ground is unlikely to be able to absorb much of this moisture.

Based on these forecasts, areas of ponding, standing water and localized flooding are expected around the watershed. Smaller watercourses in the region are expected to rise and spill their banks into adjacent low-lying areas. The LTVCA expects to operate the McGregor Creek Diversion Channel in Chatham.

The Thames River is also expected to rise and flood the low-lying river flats adjacent to the river, from Delaware down to Thamesville. Water levels on the river should be expected to be elevated throughout the week. An additional update may be required once to total amount of rainfall and snowmelt from the upper watershed in known.

People should take extra caution and avoid the river, ditches, and streams. Any remaining ice on these watercourses should be considered unsafe. The combination of slippery banks, unstable ice conditions, and fast-moving cold water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory as necessary.

This message will be in effect until January 2nd.

Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])